The importance of a UK-German defence pact for EU military planning

Good morning. Today, I unpack the significance of yesterday’s Anglo-German treaty declaration and its influence on Europe’s future defence plans, and preview a gathering of EU foreign ministers with a twist.

Brothers in arms

Germany and Britain are aiming to sign an ambitious new treaty built on defence and economic ties that Chancellor Olaf Scholz said yesterday would put “our relations on an entirely new footing”. That marks a significant new skirmish in the battle for Europe’s future security architecture.

Context: Russia’s war against Ukraine has forced a rapid rethink of Europe’s defence and security outlook, including a sharp surge in defence spending after decades of shrinking budgets and a rethink of military procurement, co-operation between Nato and the EU, and how the continent’s armed forces work together.

The European Commission is expected to deliver a new defence industry strategy in the first 100 days of Ursula von der Leyen’s new presidency set to begin in November. That blueprint, which was trailed this spring, has attracted intense lobbying behind the scenes from big capitals.

Some, led by France, want the EU’s future defence strategy (and, potentially, EU taxpayer investments in defence industries) to have minimal involvement of third countries such as the UK, Norway and Turkey, which have large defence industries and are big Nato allies.

Others, such as Sweden and the Netherlands, are pushing for a more open approach, not least because many of their defence companies have long-standing ties to British or other third-country manufacturers.

Germany’s bilateral defence push with the UK, then — which builds on a July declaration and is heavily focused on corporate angles such as joint equipment development and integration of defence supply chains — puts Berlin firmly in the second camp, and signals that Scholz is prepared to resist any move from the commission that would heavily restrict cross-Channel defence co-operation.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who dashed from Berlin to Paris yesterday afternoon and meets French President Emmanuel Macron today, will probably get a different vibe from the Elysée on the topic.

Chart du jour: Backlash

Germany’s ruling coalition faces a rout at the hands of far-right populists in this Sunday’s elections in Saxony and Thuringia.

Don’t call it a Gymnich

EU foreign ministers will gather for their traditional biennial informal meeting today but not — as is traditional — hosted by the rotating presidency: Hungary is still on the naughty step.

Context: Every EU member state gets to hold the council presidency for six months, and host the informal ministerial meetings on their territory. But as punishment for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s freelance “peace mission” where he visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in an attempt to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine, Brussels stripped Budapest of the prestige of hosting today’s gathering.

The meeting is not even being referred to by its usual name of “Gymnich”, in a demonstration of peak Brussels bureaucratese (the first informal meeting of EU foreign ministers was held at Germany’s Schloss Gymnich in 1974.)

Other informal ministerials — of energy, environment and health ministers — have taken place in Hungary, with other countries boycotting or sending junior officials. Commissioners have been requested not to attend.

“Ours was super weird,” said one minister who attended an informal in Hungary last month. “Hardly anyone there, hardly anything to talk about. Very odd. Very pointless.”

Today’s agenda is not unlike the seven formal council meetings the foreign ministers have had so far this year: Ukraine before lunch; the Middle East in the afternoon. Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will join them for lunch to discuss Brussels-Ankara relations, and there will be a debate on Venezuela to round off the day.

Fidan’s participation will mark the first time in five years that Ankara has joined the confab. He will lobby his counterparts to revive Turkey’s long-stalled bid to join the EU and renew Ankara’s call to modernise the customs union and make it easier and quicker for Turkish citizens to obtain visas to enter the bloc, according to diplomats.

Fidan will also reiterate Ankara’s position on the Cyprus issue, which remains one of the biggest sticking points in EU-Turkey relations, and meet his Greek counterpart Giorgos Gerapetritis.

But few officials expect much progress on key issues, not least because of the informal nature of the discussions and the awkward context that they should be enjoying the delights of a grand Budapest palace with views over the Danube, but are instead holed up in their regular Brussels meeting room as a means to punish one of their own.

“There is no Gymnich,” said Peter Stano, a commission foreign policy spokesman. “This is an informal meeting . . . with no role for the rotating presidency.”

What to watch today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron hosts talks with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in Paris . . . 

2. . . . then visits his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade.

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